Thursday, September 11, 2008

Logically charting out the Bill O'Reilly-Jaime Lynne-Bristol Palin issue (covered in last post)

First, a recap of the last post...

Here's what we know about the Spears family and Palin family:

- teen daughter Jaime Lynne, unmarried, got an unwanted pregnancy

- teen daughter Bristol Palin, unmarried, got an unwanted pregnancy

- the Spears family has a lack of parental supervision; Britney and maybe Lynne have been allowed to run wild (all caught on camera)

Here's what we don't know:

- what supervision or discipline is like in the Palin household, if any

- if Lynne was as wild as Britney (not as much camera evidence)

- assuming Lynne was as reckless as Britney, or at least reckles enough, did this recklessness cause Lynne's pregnancy

So we have our knowns and unknowns above. Let's have some presumptions.

Our Main Presumption: It's fair to asume that reckless personalities will get you pregnant, even if we did not directly witness the situation where the pregnancy took place, and all the events that preceded it. Common sense tells us that wild reckless teen behavior will lead to things like drugs and teen pregnancy sooner or later.


wouldn't that also mean that Bristol Palin was similarly reckless? Since we don't know anything about Palin's family, this could be true.

But even if we give Palin's family the benefit of the doubt - we trust that they were well behaved - then doesn't this cast doubt on our Main Presumption? If a well-behaved family can have a teen pregnancy and a reckless family can have a teen pregnancy, then it seems that our Main Presumption is less sense than our "common sense" suggested. Add to that that we don't know if Jaime Lynne = Britney in terms of smartness. For all we know, Jaime may have been the responsible counter-opposite of her sister. We all know families like that.

So what have we got to base our judgment on???

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